It was not without reason that I mentioned of a possibility of expiry being above 6200.
If the charts shown below are right, we might be seeing a repeat of what happened in August 2013.
Nifty made a low at 5118 just a day before expiry, and some action started in Nifty options that gave a hint of the big rise that followed till expiry.
The August 5100 CE chart is shown below with the Open Interest of that CE option. (this is a 5 min chart).
5200 Aug CE made a low near 20 on 29th August, and after 1 pm, the Open interest in this CE option started dropping drastically.
The 5200 CE rose all the way from 20 to expire at 210 in just 10 hours !!
If one looks closely at the 6100 CE chart of today, a similar pattern can be seen emerging.
The 6200 CE also shows a similar pattern:
If this shedding of open interest continues tomorrow, Nifty can rise.
As regards levels in Nifty, the high before the RBI policy today 6171.8 needs to be crossed fast tomorrow, for bears to panic.
This is just an initial sign and needs confirmation tomorrow by way of drastic fall in Open interest of the 6100 and 6200 CE options.
If the charts shown below are right, we might be seeing a repeat of what happened in August 2013.
Nifty made a low at 5118 just a day before expiry, and some action started in Nifty options that gave a hint of the big rise that followed till expiry.
The August 5100 CE chart is shown below with the Open Interest of that CE option. (this is a 5 min chart).
5200 Aug CE made a low near 20 on 29th August, and after 1 pm, the Open interest in this CE option started dropping drastically.
The 5200 CE rose all the way from 20 to expire at 210 in just 10 hours !!
If one looks closely at the 6100 CE chart of today, a similar pattern can be seen emerging.
The 6200 CE also shows a similar pattern:
If this shedding of open interest continues tomorrow, Nifty can rise.
As regards levels in Nifty, the high before the RBI policy today 6171.8 needs to be crossed fast tomorrow, for bears to panic.
This is just an initial sign and needs confirmation tomorrow by way of drastic fall in Open interest of the 6100 and 6200 CE options.
2 comments:
Hello,
Can we still expect a expiry around 6200 levels or we can now expect it around 6100-6150 levels ??
Cheers,
Girish
6200 looks difficult; Bulls might be happy with 6150; its a bit confusing right now, especially with Fed news overnight
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