Tuesday, December 27, 2016

What is this Traders Carnival ??

As the name suggests, it is a carnival of traders !!

This concept was started by DJ (@ra1nb0w) who is from Bangalore.

Official Twitter handle is @Traderscarnival .

The first edition was held in Bangalore in 2012, then Pune in 2013, Goa 2014,  Mumbai 2014, and it went international in 2015 (Bangkok). This year it is being held in Mumbai.

It is a gathering of traders (full time or part time) who are passionate about the stock market, and are open to exchange ideas over 3 days (2 nights included, since it is a residential event).

Firstly, ALL the speakers are humble selfless persons, and none of them are paid for speaking at the event (not even their travelling expenses). All the speakers have spent many years in the market and have seen all ups and downs that a trader goes through. It will not be wrong to say that all of them have been humbled by the market at some point in their career, and they know very well who is the BOSS --the market. 

They have learnt it the hard way, since at the time they started, internet, blogs and e-books were non existent or very slow and few.  All of them would agree that had there been such an event in their initial years, much of their miseries would have been reduced.

One might argue that with the advent of the internet, twitter, blogs, webinars, it is easier to learn about the stock market online. Yes and NO....a BIG NO, for the simple reason that during the Traders Carnival, all participants and speakers stay at the same venue throughout the event, and the process of sharing ideas goes on right from the time everyone arrives, till they depart (with a heavy heart). The learning process is enhanced much more when you actually meet people and listen to them and it goes on throughout the event.

For me, this sharing of ideas and networking is the biggest takeaway from this  Carnival.

Many people have asked me if this event is for a newbie or someone who cannot read charts well, and a simple answer is YES! They can start the process of gaining knowledge by interacting with others.

It is a fact that one can gain not only from successful strategies, but also from failed strategies and failed traders. The whole group becomes like family, and share their failures as well and no one laughs at them or mocks them, like one sees on Twitter. Neither does anyone boast about his success.

Most of the traders carry these friendships well beyond the event, and keep in touch on a regular basis in the future, sharing their studies of various charts and potential trading strategies and trade ideas.

No wonder there are a few participants who have attended ALL TC events, and others who have attended more than one, and keep looking forward to the next event.

This event has one big disadvantage though. 


Traders who like to retire early in the evening will find it tough since sometimes the sessions go on till past midnight and even after that, participants get together in small groups in someone's room and discuss maybe till 2am-3am.

For the entire duration, every participant eats, drinks, breathes stock markets and oh yes, even sleeps with fellow traders (after all...rooms are on twin sharing basis !!) 
 
 

Sunday, July 31, 2016

A small update on Nifty and BN options - not very bullish for this expiry

Although Nifty is still bullish, the CE charts are giving some different ideas. It does not mean that Nifty is set for a fall yet since there is no bullish indication from the Put charts.

This can only mean one thing - market might remain range-bound for near term.

The 8700 CE chart shows a topping pattern (so do other Nifty CE charts), and unless this 8700 CE crosses and sustains above 145-150, selling might appear at the top; this can also mean that Nifty can continue to go to a bit higher, since the premium on this CE is quite high as of now.

However, a premium of 145-150 on the 8700 CE means Nifty might find it difficult to cross 8850 this expiry, which is about 200 points higher from higher on Nifty (about 2.5%).



Premium on monthly 19000 CE is also higher, but this chart also shows a topping out pattern, though Puts in BN are not yet showing any bottoming out pattern. 



The idea this expiry then might be to short the weak stocks when these CEs go towards the top of the range, and buy the strong stocks when these CEs show some strength on a dip, as long as Puts do not show strength.

Sunday, June 26, 2016

Some charts Post - Brexit

Some clues from Nifty and Nifty Options charts that I tweeted earlier today:

8200 CE:

10-12 on 8200 ce very crucial on June 8200 CE; if that holds, it can see 50 - 80 or higher


July 8300 ce gives a similar pattern; as long as 20 holds, Nifty is bullish






Nifty has broken the trendline from the 6825 low, however, Sensex hasn't (closed abv)



Nifty took support on a previous resistance band near7900-7950 in spite of panic (also the IHS breakout level)




However, on the upper side, 8300- 8350 might act as a resistance again




On the bearish side, similarity between Aug'15 and now is also scary; this will be known at 9.15 am on Monday though




The Nifty monthly chart says, whats all this fuss about ?




Saturday, March 12, 2016

What the options data reveals for some key stocks

Although the charts are still bullish for almost all indices and key stocks, I observed something interesting in the options data.

I jokingly call this study MRI scan, since this is not something that a chart reveals, and one needs to dig a bit deep to diagnose it.

 So what is this MRI Scan? This is the Put Call ratio of individual strike prices for any index or stock PROVIDED the options are liquid for that stock. 

Based on my observation over the years, a PCR above 1-1.2 is bullish for that strike price ( level), and a PCR below 0.8-0.9 is bearish for that strike price (level), especially when expiry approaches.

This means that if the PCR for a stock at a certain level is below 0.9, and yet the stock is trading at a price above that level, AND if the PCR for that level does not rise sharply over the next few days (through Put writing and / or Call covering), the stock can fall ..at least to a level where the PCR gives it support (0.9-1.0).

I am giving below MRI scans for some key stocks. 

How to study this ? - note current price of a stock , and check PCR at that level and a couple of levels below and above cmp.

This post is not a call to go short at all, but to keep an eye on how the PCRs shape up in coming days.. there are only 12 trading days till expiry in March now.










Saturday, January 23, 2016

What is Traders Carnival ?

Traders Carnival is a gathering of traders who have a passion to learn more on the subject and also share what they have learnt over the years.

Traders Carnival is the brainchild of DJ as he is known among friends (@ra1nb0w on Twitter). I have been involved with Traders Carnival right from the first year, and DJ calls me Hitler - always playing a Devil's advocate to his crazy brainwaves.

Without going too much in the history which you can very well read on the website, here is my view of how and what people can gain from this event.

Firstly, ALL the speakers are humble selfless persons, and none of them are paid for speaking at the event; not even their travelling costs. All the speakers have spent many years in the market and have seen all ups and downs that a trader goes through. It will not be wrong to say that all of them have been humbled by the market at some point in their career, and they know very well who is the BOSS --the market. 

They have learnt this the hard way, since the time internet itself was not so common (and fast). All of them would agree that had there been such an event in their initial years, much of their miseries would have been reduced.

One might argue that with the advent of the internet, twitter, blogs, webinars, it is easier to learn about the stock market online. Yes and NO....a BIG NO, for the simple reason that during the Traders Carnival, all participants and speakers stay at the same venue throughout the event, and the process of sharing ideas goes on right from the time everyone arrives, till they depart (with a heavy heart). The learning process is enhanced much more when you meet people and it goes on throughout the event.

For me, this sharing of ideas and networking is the biggest advantage given by Traders Carnival.

Most of the traders carry these friendships well beyond the event, and keep in touch on a regular basis in the future sharing their studies of various charts and potential trading strategies and trade ideas.

No wonder there are a few participants who have attended ALL TC events, and others who have attended more than one, and keep looking forward to the next event.

Traders who like to retire early in the evening will find it tough, since sometimes the sessions go on till past midnight and even after that participants get together in small groups in someone's room and discuss maybe till 2am-3am.

For the entire duration, every participant, eats, drinks, breathes and oh yes, even sleeps with fellow traders (rooms are on twin sharing basis -- to clarify !!)

For me, the highlight out of all the 4 events so far, was an interactive session which was held in TC 2014, Goa, on the subject - 'Pros and Cons of being a full time trader'...it was a real eye opener, and the session is going to be repeated this year too.


For more details, contact the Event Organiser directly at +91 84949 25324 or at dharmarajj@gmail.com

Should you need more information about the event and possibly register, www.traderscarnival.com  



Sunday, January 3, 2016

Last quarter and full year 2015 in charts

Here are quarterly and full year charts for the year 2015 of some key stocks.

(Comments are just observations and not any recommendation to trade)  

NIFTY :

On a broader time frame, drifting down. Time correction, rather than a price correction ? 



Bears will call this a spinning top on yearly.


SENSEX:

On a broader time frame, drifting down. Time correction, rather than a price correction ? 


 Bears will call this a spinning top on yearly.



RELIANCE:

Respected the long term trend line; looks bullish after a dip.



Double bottom on yearly.



INFY:

Doesn't look too bullish (can be wrong).




TCS:

Consolidation, but drifting down on quarterly as well as yearly.



ONGC:

Bounce toh banta hai !



BPCL:

Consolidation time ?



HPCL:

Consolidation time ?




ITC:

Doji on quarterly, and bearish engulfing on yearly...stay away ?




HUL :

Looks bullish.





 ACC:

Consolidation on quarterly, but bearish yearly chart.




GRASIM:

Will be great if it breaks out.





AMBUJA :

Consolidation on quarterly, but bearish yearly chart. 




ASIAN PAINTS:

Looks bullish.
 




BANK NIFTY :

Consolidation? sideways for some more time ?




SBIN :

Had said 'waste of time' last quarter, did that; time for a bounce this year?





PNB :

Bounce toh banta hai ?




ICICI BANK :

 Consolidation? sideways for some more time ?




AXIS BANK :

Consolidation? sideways for some more time ?




MARUTI :

Hanging man on quarterly? 



Iska petrol khatm hi nahi hota !!
 


HEROMOTOCO :

Looks bullish.









EICHER MOTORS:

Consolidating.






LT :

Bearish quarterly chart, but bounce toh banta hai.



 Consolidation on yearly chart.


 BHEL :

Bounce toh banta hai.




BOSCH :

 Consolidation on quarterly, but bearish yearly chart.




CAIRN :

Bounce toh banta hai.



DR REDDY :

Bearish on both time frames.



 CIPLA :

Not (yet ? ) weak like some other Pharma stocks.




LUPIN :

Consolidating, good support near 1580 - 1600.




SUN PHARMA :

Not interested. 




TATA STEEL :

Is it a long term bottom near 200 ?




TATA MOTORS :

Bullish harami on quarterly, but.............


Bearish engulfing on yearly.



APOLLO TYRE :

Consolidating.





RELIANCE CAPITAL :

Bullish !




RELIANCE INFRA :

 Bullish !



 RCOM :

Bullish !






BHARTI :

Bullish ! 

It is strange - the general view is that after the launch of Jio, other telecom stocks will go down, but some are looking bullish.