Sunday, July 31, 2016

A small update on Nifty and BN options - not very bullish for this expiry

Although Nifty is still bullish, the CE charts are giving some different ideas. It does not mean that Nifty is set for a fall yet since there is no bullish indication from the Put charts.

This can only mean one thing - market might remain range-bound for near term.

The 8700 CE chart shows a topping pattern (so do other Nifty CE charts), and unless this 8700 CE crosses and sustains above 145-150, selling might appear at the top; this can also mean that Nifty can continue to go to a bit higher, since the premium on this CE is quite high as of now.

However, a premium of 145-150 on the 8700 CE means Nifty might find it difficult to cross 8850 this expiry, which is about 200 points higher from higher on Nifty (about 2.5%).



Premium on monthly 19000 CE is also higher, but this chart also shows a topping out pattern, though Puts in BN are not yet showing any bottoming out pattern. 



The idea this expiry then might be to short the weak stocks when these CEs go towards the top of the range, and buy the strong stocks when these CEs show some strength on a dip, as long as Puts do not show strength.