The title of this post might shock some bulls, but the price action seems to suggest that a top has been made for this year already.
Moreover options data from January suggest that if Bulls do not act fast in early January 2014, this top might not be crossed in the near future at all, and then the next trigger is only the Lok Sabha elections.
After the assembly election results were out last weekend, Nifty did manage to trade at all time highs almost for the full day, however, the last traded price for the day was below that figure, and only the opening high on Tuesday was above that figure of 6357, after which it has always remained below that previous high.
This is not a good sign after crossing an all time high, which had proved to be such a tough nut to crack on many previous occasions.
A typical book breakout above a 5 year old high should have sustained well above it.
In my view, 'bulls' have only scored brownie points by making a new all time high.
Coming to the current scenario, the 5-day fall last week has caused pain for a lot of bulls, and they will keep looking at every good rise to exit. These will act as resistances in any rise.
Nifty can bottom out from the Friday low or worst case 6140-45 (spot), but there will be resistances at every 50-points rise , the toughest being near 6250 and then 6300-6310.
The 6200 CE chart also suggests something similar. The Friday low of 68 is a good support, failing which, 45 can act as a support.
I do not see it rising beyond 130-140 before the expiry.
Moreover options data from January suggest that if Bulls do not act fast in early January 2014, this top might not be crossed in the near future at all, and then the next trigger is only the Lok Sabha elections.
After the assembly election results were out last weekend, Nifty did manage to trade at all time highs almost for the full day, however, the last traded price for the day was below that figure, and only the opening high on Tuesday was above that figure of 6357, after which it has always remained below that previous high.
This is not a good sign after crossing an all time high, which had proved to be such a tough nut to crack on many previous occasions.
A typical book breakout above a 5 year old high should have sustained well above it.
In my view, 'bulls' have only scored brownie points by making a new all time high.
Coming to the current scenario, the 5-day fall last week has caused pain for a lot of bulls, and they will keep looking at every good rise to exit. These will act as resistances in any rise.
Nifty can bottom out from the Friday low or worst case 6140-45 (spot), but there will be resistances at every 50-points rise , the toughest being near 6250 and then 6300-6310.
The 6200 CE chart also suggests something similar. The Friday low of 68 is a good support, failing which, 45 can act as a support.
I do not see it rising beyond 130-140 before the expiry.
2 comments:
Hi. I wanted to know which charting software you use and where do you get historical data, especially option prices.
Thanks!
Amibroker charting software; data from Globaldatafeeds for all FNO data
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