With Nifty futures and sensex having made all time highs, and Nifty spot threatening to do so, here is a study based on Options to try and see what Nifty can do in November.
Based on the Options data, it appears Nifty might remain rangebound within 6100 to 6400 range.
This study based on Options is a bit too early, and can change pretty fast, but any change spotted will be highlighted here immediately.
The 6400 CE chart shows a resistance near the 100 area, and support near the 35-40 area.
One can safely short either the CE or Nifty futures near the resistance zone for a target near the support band.
The current difference is about 50 points on the 6400 CE which means a downside of about 100-150 points on Nifty futures, which gives a target of approximately 6150 on Nifty Spot.
A look at the PCR at various strike prices also reveals a similar scenario.
The PCR at 6300 is still 0.87, thus indicating that Nifty spot is not comfortable above 6300 (CMP 6317).
The PCR at 6400 is extremely less at 0.24 and bulls do not seem to be serious as of now to plan an assault on that level.
On the lower side PCR at 6000 and 6100 is very strong, thus indicating that breaking these levels is going to be difficult in the near future.
Keeping a close watch on how these PCR values change over the next few days will give further hints.
As of now 6150 - 6320 seems to the range for Nifty spot.
TRADE IDEAS:
Go short on rise with that level of 6400 CE as SL (100-102);
Go long on any dip near 6150, with SL as 35-40 on 6400 CE.
Based on the Options data, it appears Nifty might remain rangebound within 6100 to 6400 range.
This study based on Options is a bit too early, and can change pretty fast, but any change spotted will be highlighted here immediately.
The 6400 CE chart shows a resistance near the 100 area, and support near the 35-40 area.
One can safely short either the CE or Nifty futures near the resistance zone for a target near the support band.
The current difference is about 50 points on the 6400 CE which means a downside of about 100-150 points on Nifty futures, which gives a target of approximately 6150 on Nifty Spot.
A look at the PCR at various strike prices also reveals a similar scenario.
The PCR at 6300 is still 0.87, thus indicating that Nifty spot is not comfortable above 6300 (CMP 6317).
The PCR at 6400 is extremely less at 0.24 and bulls do not seem to be serious as of now to plan an assault on that level.
On the lower side PCR at 6000 and 6100 is very strong, thus indicating that breaking these levels is going to be difficult in the near future.
Keeping a close watch on how these PCR values change over the next few days will give further hints.
As of now 6150 - 6320 seems to the range for Nifty spot.
TRADE IDEAS:
Go short on rise with that level of 6400 CE as SL (100-102);
Go long on any dip near 6150, with SL as 35-40 on 6400 CE.
3 comments:
markets and life always surprises
AP
1. An error imo. Short at lows should actually read as Short at Highs.
2. PCR wise its ok BUT if you see the action in the OI, even when the PCR at 6300 is 0.87, CE OI seems to be reducing since the last 2/3 days and PE OI adding.
3. Even the 6400CE OI has reduced by 3% and PE OI increased by 10% even though the PCR is at a measly 0.25-ish
Your thoughts please.
Thanks for pointing out that error - has been corrected.
As regards OI increase , all that appears in PCR chart, since that takes care of all OIs - of Puts and Calls both
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