Friday, May 28, 2010

Cease fire on Dalal Street last week















Last week saw a fierce fight between the bulls and the bears, and although some would say that bulls won, I am not sure.

A V shaped recovery was only to facilitate expiry of huge quantity of options that had been written, and the 'maandavli' was to ensure that expiry is near 5000. No one would have expected on Tuesday when Nifty made a low of 4786, that there will such a sharp recovery.

Yes, a recovery was on the cards at the huge support zone of 4760 - 4800, however, it was the ferocity that shook out many.

The maandavli of bulls / bears is over for the May settlement and a fresh settlement has begun.

2 important levels are shown on the chart, where bears might try to hold the bull by the scruff of their necks.

I still feel this is not a correction, but a 'downtrend', and such V shaped recoveries can bring out the bulls only to be shocked by a gap down opening.

It is going to be a fun filled month of June - definitely not for the weak hearts, where again, the range can be big.

I am expecting at least 4650 in June.

Above is purely my view and will go wrong if the market keeps going up, and crosses and closes above 5200 on the Nifty.

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