Monday, September 21, 2009

NIFTY HAS NO FEAR OF HEIGHTS..ONLY US HUMAN BEINGS HAVE IT


Attached is a long term chart of Nifty, right from its inception.
We CANNOT impose our WILL over the market and must learn to understand what the market is intending to do. What better tools than charts to do it. Moreover, Fibonacci retracements are very easily forgotten, and people concentrate on the shorter term and ignore the broader picture.
In the shorter term, yes, market is overbought, has run up quite a bit............so WHAT......says Fibonacci.
From the attached chart, which I repeat, was pointed out a few times earlier, Nifty has crossed the all important 61.8% retracement level of the crash of 2008, and I had explained last week, how the same level of 4780 - 90 was attacked a number of times by bears over a couple of days, and bulls took it way above this level to safety. The level of 4920-22 was also important as mentioned last week (although not as important as 4780-90).
However, Nifty was smart enough to cross that level and close well above 4920.
This cushion of 1-1.2% above 4920, will act against any weak global cues over the long 3-day weekend, and in the event of a gap down open, bulls can step in at this level. If they fail, they have another big support level at 4860, and THEN, finally the all important long term level.
In spite of any weakness, I feel (saying again), we might not see 4780 - 90 again........(ever????....time will tell).
If we have a gap down open, and 4920 is held, that is a good stop for longs, if it fails. buy lower, with a stop loss of 4850. I see an expiry close near 4950ish levels. One can create positions in October series, and I see 5295 or even 5540 in October.
Long term targets for Nifty remain............hold your breath.........8010=====>>>>10110=====>>16190........difficult to believe, yes, for me too!!!
I still feel, Gold will fall, and equities the world over will rise (I can hear a lot of people chuckling :)

We must remember, no high is high in a bull market, and no low is low in a bear market. It is only us humans who have fear of heights, not the market!!!

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