online poll by Opinion Stage
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Saturday, May 10, 2014
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
Saturday, April 19, 2014
A potentially big trade - SAIL
I had tweeted a few days back about a lot of PSUs looking good.
Here is one that has the potential to give an excellent trade if managed well in futures.
SAIL can be bought (an aggressive entry) at current levels, with a stop below 67-67.5, or for a conservative entry above 76.5 (problem is stop loss remains the same and is very far off).
SAIL has the potential to rise to above 90, maybe even 100+ over the next few weeks.
Based on the Options charts, SAIL 70 CE too can be bought on a dip with sl below 1, for a target of 6-7.
If one goes long in May futures and it starts rising, it can be hedged on a rise by selling the April 70 CE near 6-7, with a stop above 8.
SAIL April 70 CE :
For those not willing to risk a trade in futures, SAIL can be bought in cash with a stop below 67 for a target above 90.
Here is one that has the potential to give an excellent trade if managed well in futures.
SAIL can be bought (an aggressive entry) at current levels, with a stop below 67-67.5, or for a conservative entry above 76.5 (problem is stop loss remains the same and is very far off).
SAIL has the potential to rise to above 90, maybe even 100+ over the next few weeks.
Based on the Options charts, SAIL 70 CE too can be bought on a dip with sl below 1, for a target of 6-7.
If one goes long in May futures and it starts rising, it can be hedged on a rise by selling the April 70 CE near 6-7, with a stop above 8.
SAIL April 70 CE :
For those not willing to risk a trade in futures, SAIL can be bought in cash with a stop below 67 for a target above 90.
Sunday, April 13, 2014
TRADERS CARNIVAL AT GOA IN AUGUST 2014
Traders Carnival 2014 is being held in Goa from
15th to 17th August. This is the third edition of the carnival after the
first one in Bangalore in 2012 and second one Pune in 2013.
This event is entirely the brainchild of Dharmaraj from Bangalore (a.k.a DJ) - @ra1nb0w on Twitter).
It is a 3-day residential conference, where traders from all over the country and some from abroad will be attending.
More details can be seen at www.traderscarnival.com
I have been asked the question quite a few times; " Is it for me?"
As long as you are trading in the stock market or even in the commodities market YES, this carnival is for you.
Some traders are under the impression that they will be a misfit, and might not understand anything. That is certainly not the case.
Anyone who is into trading, be it part-time or full-time, has learned something from the supreme teacher "Mr. Market" and it is this that he/she brings to the table there.
The market teaches everyone a different lesson. There is no trader who has made profits right from his / her first trade and is still making huge money continuously. There is always something more to learn. There will not be a single trader there who can claim to 'know all'. That is impossible !!
The beauty of this carnival is - one will get to meet and interact with 150+ fellow traders from the age 25 to 60. Every single person has learnt lessons from the market, and will be sharing that 'lesson' with others, be it as a speaker or just a participant. From my experience, there is something to learn even from a beginner, someone who is in the market for just 1-2 years. There is no one at the carnival who wants to keep his trading style / strategy a secret, because they all believe that only when they share, will they learn something from others.
It is a 3-day residential conference, where traders from all over the country and some from abroad will be attending.
More details can be seen at www.traderscarnival.com
I have been asked the question quite a few times; " Is it for me?"
As long as you are trading in the stock market or even in the commodities market YES, this carnival is for you.
Some traders are under the impression that they will be a misfit, and might not understand anything. That is certainly not the case.
Anyone who is into trading, be it part-time or full-time, has learned something from the supreme teacher "Mr. Market" and it is this that he/she brings to the table there.
The market teaches everyone a different lesson. There is no trader who has made profits right from his / her first trade and is still making huge money continuously. There is always something more to learn. There will not be a single trader there who can claim to 'know all'. That is impossible !!
The beauty of this carnival is - one will get to meet and interact with 150+ fellow traders from the age 25 to 60. Every single person has learnt lessons from the market, and will be sharing that 'lesson' with others, be it as a speaker or just a participant. From my experience, there is something to learn even from a beginner, someone who is in the market for just 1-2 years. There is no one at the carnival who wants to keep his trading style / strategy a secret, because they all believe that only when they share, will they learn something from others.
If you wish to learn from the experience and mistakes of others, this is THE place for you.
However, if you feel after attending this carnival, you will start making a potful of money from the day you return home, the answer is a BIG NO !
This carnival is not one of those ‘formal’
events where the speakers are from abroad and charges are also very high.
What suits someone might not suit you. But, you will certainly get different ideas, and will be able to decide which idea can benefit you, which one needs a bit of tweaking at your end, to suit your temperament.
What suits someone might not suit you. But, you will certainly get different ideas, and will be able to decide which idea can benefit you, which one needs a bit of tweaking at your end, to suit your temperament.
I will be speaking on 2 topics:
1.
Low risk setups for trading in
Options (purely chart based), and
2.
This is more of a group discussion with some starting points from my side – on the requirements of being a full
time trader (something that everyone dreams of).
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
2 index stocks to watch out for in coming days
Although Nifty is at all time highs, 2 leading index stocks are doing something different.
Tata Steel :
The bears will keep an eye on the red line, whereas the bulls will keep an eye on the green line.
In any case, once it breaks 335, Tata Steel might be headed lower and fast. It needs to go above that red line to become safe.
INFY :
It has been rising at an angle of almost 45 degrees for almost 1 year now. However, it has broken the trendline as seen on the chart.
There seems to be some negative news after market hours today and the ADR on Nasdaq has given a strong negative reaction (down 6.7% as I type this).
If Infy opens below 3550 cash here tomorrow, it can slide further.
Watch these 2 stocks tomorrow and in coming days to get an idea about what Nifty might do
Tata Steel :
The bears will keep an eye on the red line, whereas the bulls will keep an eye on the green line.
In any case, once it breaks 335, Tata Steel might be headed lower and fast. It needs to go above that red line to become safe.
INFY :
It has been rising at an angle of almost 45 degrees for almost 1 year now. However, it has broken the trendline as seen on the chart.
There seems to be some negative news after market hours today and the ADR on Nasdaq has given a strong negative reaction (down 6.7% as I type this).
If Infy opens below 3550 cash here tomorrow, it can slide further.
Watch these 2 stocks tomorrow and in coming days to get an idea about what Nifty might do
Sunday, February 16, 2014
The leader of the next bull run ?
The title might surprise quite a few when they see the stock that has been mentioned below.
However, one basic shortcoming of following charts only over the past few years can tend to mislead into believing that this stock is not doing anything for the last 5 years.
The stock is Reliance Industries Limited. This stock was the darling of investors once upon a time, especially in the Gujarati community, who will still be loyal to it. (I have also heard that there are some traders, who never go short in RIL, as a mark of respect to the tremendous wealth it has generated for them in the past).
The duration of a trade is directly proportional to the time frame on which one studies the chart !
In my view, to get a long term view of this chart, one should not look at the performance of the stock price only over the past 5 years. It is clear as shown below, that this stock has been sideways over the past 5-6 years (weekly chart below)
A very long term monthly chart also does not show much promise and it can also be termed bearish (monthly chart below).
The above monthly chart is on a linear scale. The same monthly chart on a LOG SCALE now gives a different picture as shown below:
The monthly chart has a support of a trend line (blue) near 780, and a very long term trend line support near 550 - 570.
A look at the yearly chart of RIL:
In my view, after the steep rise till January 2008, the stock is only consolidating, and might do so till it touches the long term trend line. However, since nothing can be said with certainty, it is better to buy some quantity for the long term near 780- 790, and then finally near 560 - 570.
A text book pole - pennant formation can also be seen on the long term chart, and if the support at 550 - 560 holds, I would expect this stock to give a breakout for a target of minimum 3000 over the long term.
I am sure, people will be afraid to buy this stock especially due to all the negative news regarding gas prices among others coming in the media on a regular basis.
However, old timers in the stock market will be aware that this stock thrives on a dose of bad news, and the best time to buy this stock is when the news get really bad.
If one believes in the India growth story and the fact that our stock market is headed for much higher levels in the next 3-5 years, I firmly believe RIL will be one stock to watch out for.
However, one basic shortcoming of following charts only over the past few years can tend to mislead into believing that this stock is not doing anything for the last 5 years.
The stock is Reliance Industries Limited. This stock was the darling of investors once upon a time, especially in the Gujarati community, who will still be loyal to it. (I have also heard that there are some traders, who never go short in RIL, as a mark of respect to the tremendous wealth it has generated for them in the past).
The duration of a trade is directly proportional to the time frame on which one studies the chart !
In my view, to get a long term view of this chart, one should not look at the performance of the stock price only over the past 5 years. It is clear as shown below, that this stock has been sideways over the past 5-6 years (weekly chart below)
A very long term monthly chart also does not show much promise and it can also be termed bearish (monthly chart below).
The above monthly chart is on a linear scale. The same monthly chart on a LOG SCALE now gives a different picture as shown below:
The monthly chart has a support of a trend line (blue) near 780, and a very long term trend line support near 550 - 570.
A look at the yearly chart of RIL:
In my view, after the steep rise till January 2008, the stock is only consolidating, and might do so till it touches the long term trend line. However, since nothing can be said with certainty, it is better to buy some quantity for the long term near 780- 790, and then finally near 560 - 570.
A text book pole - pennant formation can also be seen on the long term chart, and if the support at 550 - 560 holds, I would expect this stock to give a breakout for a target of minimum 3000 over the long term.
I am sure, people will be afraid to buy this stock especially due to all the negative news regarding gas prices among others coming in the media on a regular basis.
However, old timers in the stock market will be aware that this stock thrives on a dose of bad news, and the best time to buy this stock is when the news get really bad.
If one believes in the India growth story and the fact that our stock market is headed for much higher levels in the next 3-5 years, I firmly believe RIL will be one stock to watch out for.
Friday, February 7, 2014
Reason for being bearish on Tata Motors
I am no expert in Elliot Waves or in Harmonic patterns, but follow simple basic TA.
As seen in the chart below, Tata Motors had a good support near 359-360 since the last 3-4 months, and that support was broken recently.
Although the 200 dma gave support near 332, as long as 360 is not crossed, the lower levels can be revisited.
A short opportunity has a very low risk near 357--360 cash levels.
As seen in the chart below, Tata Motors had a good support near 359-360 since the last 3-4 months, and that support was broken recently.
Although the 200 dma gave support near 332, as long as 360 is not crossed, the lower levels can be revisited.
A short opportunity has a very low risk near 357--360 cash levels.
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