Stock for November

A highly oversold and forgotten stock is breaking out.

On a close above 149, NTPC can go to 162 and 173.

 

Expiry at 6100 or 6300 ?

The Max Pain of Options for Nifty is near 6100 right now, and there are high chances that expiry might be near 6100.

However, one counter argument is the PCR at 6200 strike price.

This PCR rose steadily yesterday from a low of 0.3 to 0.78.

As seen in the chart, there is a resistance from a double top near 1-1.1 (black line).

If this resistance is crossed by the PCR, the 6200 CE has 100-105 as a target which gives an expiry near 6300.

How to trade this?

Nifty is now overbought on hourly charts, and there is strong chance that it will correct.

On a strong open today, one can buy a 6300 PE near 70-80, with a stop loss 10 points below morning low.

If and when Nifty declines, this PE will rise fast, and can even go to 120-140.

If, during this time, the 6200 PCR is still showing strength, one can then buy a 6200 CE on dip below 20 (54 now). Partial profit booking in the 6300 PE will ensure that this 6200 CE will be free of cost.

Chart of 6200 CE:

 

Will this trendline act?

A school of thought in TA says that any trendline becomes stronger when re-tested.

The original trend should continue if the trendline is not crossed.

The high on Nifty spot today is bang on the trendline right from 1st October.

Hourly chart showing the trendline :

 
This become a strong LOC (Line of Control) for the bulls and bears now.

A low risk bet for November

Logic of the low risk November PE is simple.

As seen form the chart, this PE has declined from 180 all the way to a low near 9 today.

Nifty on daily charts is very close to being overbought, and there are very good chances of Nifty seeing a correction now.

Bulls can call it a correction, bears can call it a crash, but this low risk PEs (even 5500 or 5600 PE)

are worth buying to have an insurance against any crash / correction in November.

It is highly unlikely that Nifty will keep going up.

No reason to be bearish on the market till this happens

Reliance has given a breakout above 901 and the logical target is 925-927

The chart in the previous tweet was of RIL 920 ce

What can be the target ?

Given below is an hourly chart.

It has broken a trendline, and is headed downwards.

What can be the target?

1. The green band? (G)

2. The blue band ? (B)

3. Or the red band? (R)

4. Failed breakdown and will go up? (U)

Please answer only in G, B, R or U in the ‘comments’.

First lottery after a long time

5900 PE is showing initial signs of bottoming out.

One can buy near 30-32, with a strict stop loss below 25.

If SL is respected, it can give a good run.

Why Nifty didn’t go to the upper trend line?

Chart updated. Resistance from trendline from previous high.

Short on rise, SL this time based on SPOT 5985.

 

Potential Options trade

RCOM 160 ce is a good buy if it dips to 4.5 or lower;

Can be bought with a Sl near 3, for a target near 10-12

or even 16.

Please note lot size of R Com is 4000, hence risk per lot can be

Rs. 6000 or more !

Nifty update

If 6020-30 is not crossed in Nifty futures, expect a decline to 5890—5900, and
if that is breached, we might not see 6xxx in Nifty futures soon.

What does PCR suggest

PCR at 6000 strike price is just above 0.5 (the yellow line in the chart below),

and there has to be a build up of puts

at 6000 strike price and also short covering of 6000 Ce for this PCR to rise.

Till then bears will try hard to defend 6000.

 

Nifty update – 5960 spot crucial

If 5960 is crossed, expect 6120 or even 6200 which is the target for the pattern.